Agree that the narrative of "overwhelmed hospitals" was largely false and was based upon incorrect estimates of C19 morbidity and mortality and the poor modeling done by Imperial and IHME, which also did not account for voluntary behavior changes made in response to information. Prematurely closing "elective" medical care undoubtedly did great harm. In my 900-bed hospital in Maryland, everything was entirely calm and orderly - our peak covid census was only about 150 patients. Covid was very disruptive, as units had to be redesigned for negative airflow/ infection control and new work teams had to be created. Another big unknown early on was how many health care personnel would have to go out sick for 14 days due to covid - this also turned out not to be a problem. Ultimately in the first wave, my hospital had to lay off many people because there was nothing for them to do and the "covid relief" money had not started flowing.
I was baffled however why the hospitals and state governments did not start reversing these harmful policies quickly after covid cases peaked in mid-April 2020, when it was clear that hospitals would not be "overwhelmed", and overflow facilities had been created in most cities (most never used). The risk of "overwhelmed hospitals" continued to be used a cudgel and a unfalsifiable counterfactual justifying continued authoritarian covid policy throughout the pandemic. Almost all hospitals remained silent - perhaps in part due to the huge rivers of "covid relief" funds that started flowing. They never wanted it to end. This is an important part of the pandemic story that needs to be investigated and told.
Agree that the narrative of "overwhelmed hospitals" was largely false and was based upon incorrect estimates of C19 morbidity and mortality and the poor modeling done by Imperial and IHME, which also did not account for voluntary behavior changes made in response to information. Prematurely closing "elective" medical care undoubtedly did great harm. In my 900-bed hospital in Maryland, everything was entirely calm and orderly - our peak covid census was only about 150 patients. Covid was very disruptive, as units had to be redesigned for negative airflow/ infection control and new work teams had to be created. Another big unknown early on was how many health care personnel would have to go out sick for 14 days due to covid - this also turned out not to be a problem. Ultimately in the first wave, my hospital had to lay off many people because there was nothing for them to do and the "covid relief" money had not started flowing.
I was baffled however why the hospitals and state governments did not start reversing these harmful policies quickly after covid cases peaked in mid-April 2020, when it was clear that hospitals would not be "overwhelmed", and overflow facilities had been created in most cities (most never used). The risk of "overwhelmed hospitals" continued to be used a cudgel and a unfalsifiable counterfactual justifying continued authoritarian covid policy throughout the pandemic. Almost all hospitals remained silent - perhaps in part due to the huge rivers of "covid relief" funds that started flowing. They never wanted it to end. This is an important part of the pandemic story that needs to be investigated and told.